Texas Women at NCAA 2026: 142 Relay Points and the Conversion Problem

Texas women finished third at the 2026 NCAA Championships without a single senior scoring. Every point came from the junior, sophomore and freshman classes. That roster returns intact, plus two of the top recruits in the country. In my tracking sheet, this is the only women's profile in which all three columns — returning points, relay base and improvement margin — are positive.

Context and method

SwimSwam publishes its top-12 men's and women's preview series ahead of the 2026 NCAA Championships, and I use its grading scale as a starting point: four stars for a group projected to score 15–24 points per event, one star for a group projected to score nothing while still carrying potential scorers. The scale only means something inside the top 12, so it should not be read as an absolute ranking.

One rules note: athletes who exhausted their college eligibility last spring are excluded, even with ongoing lawsuits against the NCAA over the "Five-for-Five" rule. Published rosters may also still change, so every assessment here is tied to the moment of publication.

Since the Eriksen lesson at Euro 2026, I keep a separate column for non-quantifiable variables. For Texas that column holds the pressure of defending position on a team chasing a title, recovery across three consecutive days of racing, and the risk-adjustment coefficient I set between 0.8 and 1.2. Without that column, every model looks artificially clean.

Where the points come from

Bayleigh Cranford was Texas's top scorer last season with 43 points after reaching the final in all three diving events: third on 1-meter, fifth on platform, sixth on 3-meter. Campbell Stoll and Jillian Cox each accounted for 37 points. Stoll won the 200 butterfly; Cox won the 1650 freestyle in 15:32.26 and finished runner-up in the 500 freestyle in 4:31.56, behind Claire Weinstein.

Eva Okaro scored 24 individual points with top-10 finishes in all three sprint events. Nikolett Padar added 21, including third in the 200 freestyle. At the SEC Championships, Texas won the women's team title by more than 300 points. That number speaks to depth, not to the ability to convert best times on the national stage.

Sprint freestyle

Texas had exactly one sub-22-second 50 freestyler last season: Okaro, fourth at NCAAs in 21.05. Behind her sits a thick band of 22-low swimmers — Alexa Fulton 22.06, Sienna Schellenger 22.18, Lucy Mehraban 22.21, Angie Coe 22.32.

In the 100 freestyle, Okaro was again the only swimmer under 47 seconds at 46.41, but at NCAAs she went 46.98 and placed ninth; repeating her SEC time would have put her seventh. That detail returns at the end of this piece.

Erin Gemmell tied for 14th in 47.43, Padar was 20th in 47.79, and Lillie Nesty logged 47.81 at the Eddie Reese Texas Showdown. In the 200 freestyle, Padar took third in 1:40.78 after a 1:40.30 prelim. Nesty and Gemmell went 1:42.36 and 1:42.64; at NCAAs, Gemmell was 12th (1:42.92) and Nesty 15th (1:43.31).

Distance freestyle

Jillian Cox is the clearest star. She won the 1650 at NCAAs, finished runner-up in the 500 behind Weinstein, and had been faster in the 500 at SECs with 4:30.53. Hold that trajectory and she could leave the 2027 meet with both titles.

The other 500 freestyle load-bearer is Padar at 4:36.45 from the Texas Hall of Fame Invite, though she placed only 12th at NCAAs in 4:37.90. Kate Hurst scored in both the 500 and the 1650, her best finish eighth in the 1650 at 15:53.09, plus ninth in the 500 at 4:37.61.

Freshman Sydney Schoeck, the No. 4 recruit in her class, brings 15:51.76 in the 1650 and 4:37.88 in the 500. Mapped onto last season's NCAA scoring, those are seventh and twelfth. This is the kind of recruiting that moves a group's ceiling.

Backstroke

Emma Kern anchors the group, but last season she raced only the 200 back at NCAAs, finishing 13th in 1:51.71. In the 100 back she was the team's fastest at 51.37 as the leadoff leg of the 400 medley relay, which finished fifth overall.

Rising sophomore Sarah Rodrigues raced both, placing 35th in the 100 back (52.25) and 20th in the 200 back (1:52.20). Schoeck's 200 back best of 1:51.49 would have been 14th at NCAAs, and honorable-mention talent Brynn Lavigueur brings a 52.16 in the 100 back.

Breaststroke

Piper Enge leads the 100 breaststroke. She struggled at SECs with 59.77 and seventh place, then rebounded sharply at NCAAs with 57.76 for fifth, one tenth off her personal best of 57.69. Her 200 breast best is 2:07.90, equivalent to 14th, but she did not race the event in the second half of the season.

Next to her is Angie Coe, whose 2:07.59 in the 200 breast is worth ninth. She swam 2:09.58 at NCAAs; the event was new to her last season, so matching her best at the national meet is plausible. Campbell Chase sits at 2:08.94, not far off the 2:08.35 scoring line. Freshman Avery Klamforth, at 1:00.4 and 2:11.2, is a development project who could grow into NCAA qualifying times.

Butterfly

Campbell Stoll led the team in both the 100 fly (50.35) and 200 fly (1:50.26) and defended her national title in the 200. She faces one of the deepest 200 fly fields in the country, but the ability is undeniable.

Okaro was 27th in the 100 fly at NCAAs in 51.82, but at SECs she swam 50.71 — more than a second faster, worth eighth at NCAAs. Repeating that is a meaningful points bump. Audrey Derivaux, one of the biggest names in the 2026 class, has a 200 fly best of 1:52.70, which would have made the A-final last season.

IM

The 200 IM produced 23 points and ranked among the top three teams. Campbell Chase was fifth in 1:53.48 after a 1:53.06 prelim. Coe nearly joined her in the final, ninth in 1:54.87, despite a 1:53.90 at SECs.

In the 400 IM, only Stoll scored, 12th in 4:04.99. Coe's 4:03.94 at SECs was the fastest by any Longhorn all season and would have been eighth at NCAAs. Derivaux again plugs in immediately with 1:53.87 and 4:01.83, worth eighth and sixth.

Diving

Cranford made the top eight in all three events and is now a senior. Hold or improve those placements and Texas's ceiling rises clearly. The problem is behind her: almost no depth, with nearly the whole load still on her shoulders.

Relays and the warning

Relays produced 142 points: second in the 800 free, third in the 400 free, fifth in the 400 medley, seventh in both the 200 medley and 200 free. Every swimmer from all five relays returns. That kind of data usually gets read as "if it isn't broken, don't fix it," and that is exactly the reading I distrust.

I removed total points from the model and the model demanded an explanation. When all five relays keep the same lineup, a team does not automatically improve; it simply avoids regressing. Meanwhile, direct rivals are turning over. In the 200 freestyle, Okaro, Nesty, Mehraban and Gemmell are the sensible option, but Fulton at 22.06 and Coe at 22.32 are flat-start times — real alternatives if a change is needed.

The crux is conversion rate. Look closely and Texas shows a worrying pattern: several swimmers post their fastest times at SECs or mid-season invites, then go slower at NCAAs. Okaro 46.41 to 46.98. Coe 1:53.90 to 1:54.87. Padar 4:36.45 to 4:37.90. Added up, that gap is the difference between third place and a title race.

Predicting Texas over Virginia is not courage. It is a number that has not yet found a place to stand. But that gap can close if the conversion rate improves in exactly those three events.

The signal to watch

For Longhorn fans, returning all scoring plus Derivaux and Schoeck puts a top-two finish within reach. Stoll and Cox target repeat individual titles, while Okaro, Padar, Hurst, Enge and Chase hunt extra finals to share the load.

Every lane sends a signal. The analyst does not decode it; the analyst listens. The signal I am waiting for is not in March but at the January invites: whether Okaro swims 46-mid or 46.9, whether Coe holds 1:53 through a third round, whether Cranford can stay in three finals when there are no surprises left to create.

The analyst's duty is not to be right, but to say what the data wants said. And the data right now says Texas is standing exactly on the line between spoiler and champion.